Let’s talk about COP 21 & COP 26
Our interest in Greenhouse Gases dates back much further than people realise. Initially sparked by research into lunar radiation on earth, the first calculations on greenhouse gas levels were undertaken in 1896.
Much to our surprise, these calculations were astonishingly accurate and began to kindle the first research into the effects of greenhouse gases.
Here is what you need to know about the research to date, how it put a name to climate change and what global stakeholders are doing about it.
The Background
Limits of growth 1972 graph showing one of the possible world futures
Fast forward to 1972, increased research began to spark public interest. Studies such as John Sawyer’s ‘Man-made Carbon Dioxide and the Greenhouse Effect’ and Meadows, Meadows and Randers’ ‘The Limits to Growth’ employed the first computer modelling techniques and looked at issues of climate change, population growth and use of resources.
Initial responses ranged from ’not all scientists agree’, to blaming sunspots, and even asserting that Climate Change would be beneficial. During this time, more tangible issues such as habitat and species loss were not on the radar, meaning that the former responses paved the way for people to become climate deniers.
The Data
Click image to enlarge!
As theory and modelling developed, it became clear that the effects of Climate Change would have vastly different impacts across the world. Countries in the Southern Hemisphere that had never industrialised or emitted large amounts of CO2 were likely to suffer much more than those in the North.
Visualisation of the countries facing the worst climate heating
Click image to enlarge!
However, temperature differences and the effects of climate change were felt sporadically across the world. Often, the biggest producers of greenhouse gases were not feeling the effects of their actions and could quite easily turn a blind eye to the countries that were suffering.
Increased findings meant that more people began to associate greenhouse gases with climate change, spurring more people into climate action.
The Timeline
The UN/IPCC and Conference of the Parties Climate Change Talks
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The age of Climate Diplomacy started in 1992, with the Rio Earth Summit
Many world leaders, including the USA, adopted the UNFCC - The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.This set long-term objectives to avoid dangerous human interference in the climate system.
This included:
Mitigation steps for all nations
Different targets tailored for bigger historical polluters
Industrialised countries to support developing countries in their actions on climate change
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The first review or Conference of Parties (COP) was in 1995, in Kyoto.
The conference:
Set binding targets for developed countries, but not for developing countries
Was finally approved at COP3 in 1997, and the agreement became known as the Kyoto Protocol
Was not ratified confirmed by the US, who wanted binding targets for all
Was backed by almost all others, and ran from 2005 - 2012
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This was largely seen as a disappointment in terms of progress, but did see a political agreement calling for all to set a goal of limiting temperature rise to a maximum of 2°C and set up a $100 billion Green Climate Fund by 2020.
The agreement was formalised and authorised in the Cancun Agreement 2010.
Conference of the Parties meetings are held every year, however, only a few are seen as significant milestones.
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ICOP21 UN Climate Summit was in 2015, in Paris.
This led to the Paris Agreement, setting out:
Common binding commitments from all countries in line with the 2°C target for maximum global warming.
It allowed each country to decide on its own level of commitment.
It was ratified by President Obama through Executive Action as Congress would not pass it.
Eventually, President Trump withdrew from the US in November 2020.
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COP25 UN Climate Summit was in 2019, in Madrid.
Responding to the latest IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change), reports estimated that there was only a window of 12 years to act to keep temperature level rises below 2°C. The UN called an International Climate Summit in 2019.
The Secretary General called for binding commitments and action plans to keep the rise to 1.5°C
Areas of focus were to be Finance, Energy Transition, Industry Transition, Nature based Solutions, Cities and Local Action, Resilience and Adaptation, Youth Engagement and Mobilisation and Social and Political Drivers
The results were worrying. The US boycotted it. Three of the 4 major coal producers would not acknowledge their negative contribution and China said it was up to the other developed countries such as the US to act first.
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COP26 UN Climate Summit was in 2021, in Glasgow.
There were high hopes for COP26, it was bulled as the last chance to take action to keep global warming below the 1.5°C.
By the end of the conference, the consensus was that this target was on life support, and that much more needed to be promised to achieve it.
The highs and the lows of the most recent Conference of Parties
The successes of COP 26:
A newly established Glasgow Finance Alliance for Net Zero was announced, supported by $130 trillion of private capital to fund the move to net zero. This alliance consisted of banks, markets, insurers, and active climate-aware institutional investors.
An International Sustainability Standards Board was set up to develop a global baseline for sustainability standards on climate and other environmental, social and governance matters. This complements a UK Government announcement just before COP26, that climate risk disclosures would become mandatory for large companies from 2022
The UK introduced requirements for all UK listed companies to produce net zero transition plans by 2023. The hope is that this will become the beginning of an international trend.
The UN agreed to establish a ‘group of experts’ to propose clear standards for measuring and analysing net zero commitments of non-state actors. This will create international standards on net-zero for all businesses ; expose greenwashing ; reward those who have established robust and legitimate net-zero strategies.
One of the major successes was the agreement for all signatory countries to revisit and strengthen their 2030 targets by 2022, and establish annual high-level ministerial meetings with another head-of-state meeting in 2023
Crucial progress was made on the Paris Rule Book, which concerns carbon markets and accounting. This will unlock market and non-market approaches to climate change mitigation and adaptation.
The shortcomings of COP26:
The target of ‘consigning coal to history’ was not agreed upon. China and India would only agree to ‘phase down’ coal production and use. Similarly, the attempt to agree on the phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies was watered down to the phasing out of ‘inefficient fossil fuel subsidies’.
The International Energy Agency estimated that the collected carbon reduction commitments of all countries would only be enough to keep global warming under 1.8°C. Other sources suggest that the lack of firm plans for carbon reduction by 2030 means the world is on track for 2.4°C of warming
The COP did not secure the $100 billion in finance to support vulnerable countries that was agreed at COP15.
This finance has now been delayed to 2023. This failure was keenly felt by smaller third-world vulnerable countries and indigenous populations, whose anger could be seen at the conference.
Glasgow, from Pexels
The ten key announcements at COP26
1 The Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) said more than $130 trillion (£95 trillion) of private capital has now been “committed to transforming the economy” towards the Paris climate goal of 1.5°C by adopting a science-based approach with near-term targets as well as long-term targets. However, there are still questions as to how this colossal figure will be mobilised in practice.
2 The First Movers coalition unites global companies with supply chains across carbon-intensive sectors. Together, they will use their collective buying power to develop market conditions for innovative solutions in heavy carbon industries.
3 Major international banks have committed to ending all international public financing of new unabated coal power by the end of 2021.
4 Multilateral Development Banks' joint statement: Nature, People, Planet created a commitment to align their portfolios with the Paris Agreement goals as well as nature.
5 Nearly one hundred countries agree to decrease their methane emissions by 30% by 2030, compared with 2020 levels. Methane accounts for about 0.5°C of the 1.1°C–1.2°C warming the world has seen to date.
6 World leaders representing 110 nations have signed a declaration to halt and reverse deforestation and land degradation by 2030.
7 There is a new requirement for net zero transition plans for listed companies in the UK by 2023.
8 A new International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) has been established to increase the global focus on climate risk disclosure and reporting.
9 The Glasgow Breakthroughs are the first set of global leader-led targets under The Breakthrough Agenda. The Breakthrough Agenda aims to drive down the cost of sustainable solutions such as clean power, electric vehicles, green steel, sustainable agriculture, and hydrogen production by 2030.
10 At least 23 countries, including five of the world’s top 20 coal power-using countries, have agreed to phase out coal power in the 2030s for leading nations, and the 2040s for the rest of the world.
Sources:
John Sawyer 1972 Man-made Carbon Dioxide and the Greenhouse Effect https://www.nature.com/articles/239023a0
Meadows, Meadows, and Randers 2004 Limits of Growth (the 30-year update) Earthscan: London
Lecture by Prof. Julian Marsh on The History of Environmental Concern
The Law Society: Reflecting on COP 26: What were the key outcomes?